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美国经济周期中的冲击、摩擦与不平等

Shocks, Frictions, and Inequality in US Business Cycles
American Economic Review · 2024 · Christian Bayer、Benjamin Born、Ralph Luetticke

中文摘要

我们展示了如何运用贝叶斯方法,在状态空间中对一个具有不完全市场和资产组合选择的异质性主体新凯恩斯(HANK)模型进行估计。为使估计可行,可以利用经济结构,并基于贝叶斯先验自动降低模型的维度。我们运用这一方法分析不平等对经济周期的影响程度,以及经济周期对不平等的影响程度。即便模型仅基于总量数据进行估计,且所设定的一组冲击与摩擦旨在匹配总量数据,该模型仍能大致复现所观测到的美国不平等动态。(JEL D31, D52, E12, E32, E52, E62)

Abstract

We show how a heterogeneous agent New Keynesian (HANK) model with incomplete markets and portfolio choice can be estimated in state space using a Bayesian approach. To render estimation feasible, the structure of the economy can be exploited and the dimensionality of the model automatically reduced based on the Bayesian priors. We apply this approach to analyze how much inequality matters for the business cycle and vice versa. Even when the model is estimated on aggregate data alone and with a set of shocks and frictions designed to match aggregate data, it broadly reproduces observed US inequality dynamics. (JEL D31, D52, E12, E32, E52, E62)
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