政治发展周期：1953年以来中华人民共和国的左派与右派

中文摘要

我们量化了政治发展周期——左派（毛主义）与右派（务实主义）发展政策之间的波动——对1953—1978年中国经济增长和结构转型的影响。左派政策以牺牲农业发展为代价，优先推动生产和消费向非农业部门转型。右派政策则通过放缓结构转型，优先保障农业消费。这些政策的不完全实施，使得处于结构变迁过程中的扭曲经济体因政治发展周期而承受了巨大的福利成本。（JEL D72、N15、N45、N55、O21、P21、P24）

Abstract

We quantify the effects of the political development cycle—the fluctuations between the Left (Maoist) and the Right (pragmatist) development policies—on growth and structural transformation of China in 1953–1978. The left policies prioritized structural transformation toward nonagricultural production and consumption at the expense of agricultural development. The right policies prioritized agricultural consumption through slower structural transformation. The imperfect implementation of these policies led to large welfare costs of the political development cycle in a distorted economy undergoing a structural change. (JEL D72, N15, N45, N55, O21, P21, P24)