American Economic Review · 2024 · Olivier Coibion、Dimitris Georgarakos、Yuriy Gorodnichenko、Geoff Kenny、Michael Weber
中文摘要
我们使用随机处理，提供关于未来经济增长一阶矩和/或二阶矩的不同类型信息，从而在处理组家庭感知的宏观经济不确定性中产生外生变动。相对于未受处理的对照组，对其支出决策的影响在后续调查中进行了测量。我们的结果表明，在考虑一阶矩后，较高的宏观经济不确定性会诱使家庭在随后几个月中显著且持续地减少其月度总支出。支出的变化在各支出类别中具有广泛的基础，并且也适用于较大额的耐用品购买。（JEL D12, D81, D84, E21, E23, G51）
Abstract
We use randomized treatments that provide different types of information about the first and/or second moments of future economic growth to generate exogenous changes in the perceived macroeconomic uncertainty of treated households. The effects on their spending decisions relative to an untreated control group are measured in follow-up surveys. Our results indicate that, after taking into account first moments, higher macroeconomic uncertainty induces households to significantly and persistently reduce their total monthly spending in subsequent months. Changes in spending are broad based across spending categories and apply to larger durable good purchases as well. (JEL D12, D81, D84, E21, E23, G51)