退休消费与养老金制度设计

中文摘要

本文通过分析消费来评估养老金改革的分配效应。利用瑞典行政数据，我们发现，平均而言，较早退休的劳动者在退休期间消费较少，并且在退休前后经历更大幅度的消费下降。通过理论模型解读，这些发现意味着，激励延迟退休的改革会产生相当大的消费平滑成本。进一步考察养老金政策的其他特征，我们发现，基于职业生涯早期劳动供给进行再分配的改革会产生方向相反的再分配效应，而依据财富状况实行差异化政策，可能有助于将养老金待遇更有针对性地提供给那些在退休前后易经历更大幅度消费下降的人群。（JEL E21、G51、H23、H55、J22、J26）

Abstract

This paper analyzes consumption to evaluate the distributional effects of pension reforms. Using Swedish administrative data, we show that on average, workers who retire earlier consume less while retired and experience larger drops in consumption around retirement. Interpreted via a theoretical model, these findings imply that reforms incentivizing later retirement incur a substantial consumption smoothing cost. Turning to other features of pension policy, we find that reforms that redistribute based on early-career labor supply would have opposite-signed redistributive effects, while differentiating on wealth may help to target pension benefits toward those who are vulnerable to larger drops in consumption around retirement. (JEL E21, G51, H23, H55, J22, J26)