Does Welfare Prevent Crime? the Criminal Justice Outcomes of Youth Removed from Ssi
中文摘要
我们估计了18岁时失去补充保障收入（SSI）福利对其后二十年间刑事司法和就业结果的影响。为估计这一影响，我们利用1996年福利改革法所造成的、18岁时接受SSI资格复审概率上的断点，采用断点回归设计。我们使用与刑事司法行政记录系统记录相链接的社会保障管理局数据，对这项自然实验进行评估。我们发现，取消SSI使其后二十年间受到刑事指控的数量统计显著地增加了20%。指控的增加集中于主要动机是获取收入的犯罪（增加60%），尤其是盗窃、入室盗窃、欺诈/伪造以及卖淫。取消SSI对卷入刑事司法系统的影响在二十多年后仍然持续，尽管其对同期领取SSI的影响已有所减弱。面对SSI被取消，青年因非法创收犯罪受到指控的可能性，是其在劳动力市场保持每年15,000美元稳定就业的可能性的两倍。这些指控导致取消SSI后的二十年间，年均被监禁的可能性统计显著地增加了60%。取消SSI所引致的执法和监禁成本非常高，以至于几乎完全抵消了SSI福利减少为纳税人带来的节省。
Abstract
Abstract We estimate the effect of losing Supplemental Security Income (SSI) benefits at age 18 on criminal justice and employment outcomes over the next two decades. To estimate this effect, we use a regression discontinuity design in the likelihood of being reviewed for SSI eligibility at age 18 created by the 1996 welfare reform law. We evaluate this natural experiment with Social Security Administration data linked to records from the Criminal Justice Administrative Records System. We find that SSI removal increases the number of criminal charges by a statistically significant 20% over the next two decades. The increase in charges is concentrated in offenses for which income generation is a primary motivation (60% increase), especially theft, burglary, fraud/forgery, and prostitution. The effect of SSI removal on criminal justice involvement persists more than two decades later, even as the effect of removal on contemporaneous SSI receipt diminishes. In response to SSI removal, youth are twice as likely to be charged with an illicit income-generating offense than they are to maintain steady employment at ${\$}$15,000/year in the labor market. As a result of these charges, the annual likelihood of incarceration increases by a statistically significant 60% in the two decades following SSI removal. The costs to taxpayers of enforcement and incarceration from SSI removal are so high that they nearly eliminate the savings to taxpayers from reduced SSI benefits.