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离婚法对婚姻市场均衡的影响

The Impact of Divorce Laws on the Equilibrium in the Marriage Market
Journal of Political Economy · 2024 · Ana Reynoso

中文摘要

更宽松的离婚规定是否会影响谁与谁结婚?我利用美国各州采用单方离婚法律的时间差异,表明其增加了新婚夫妇的同类匹配。为揭示潜在机制,我在基准的双方同意离婚制度下,估计了一个关于婚姻、劳动供给、消费与离婚的新型生命周期均衡模型。通过在单方离婚制度下求解该模型,我发现同类匹配有所增加,这与数据一致。该效应主要源于婚姻内部风险共担与合作减少时的选择变化,这突显了在评估家庭政策时考虑均衡效应的重要性。

Abstract

Does easier divorce affect who marries whom? I exploit time variation in the adoption of unilateral divorce across the United States and show that it increases assortative matching among newlyweds. To unravel the underlying mechanisms, I estimate a novel life-cycle equilibrium model of marriage, labor supply, consumption, and divorce under the baseline mutual consent divorce regime. By solving the model under unilateral divorce, I find that, consistent with the data, assortative matching increases. Effects are largely due to changes in choices when risk sharing and cooperation within marriage decrease, which highlights the importance of considering equilibrium effects when evaluating family policies.
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