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脱轨的增长:扭曲经济中的加总生产率增长

Growth Off the Rails: Aggregate Productivity Growth in Distorted Economies
Journal of Political Economy · 2024 · Richard Hornbeck、Martin Rotemberg

中文摘要

我们考察了19世纪美国铁路网扩张带来的加总经济收益。利用制造业普查数据,我们估计了县域市场准入相对增加所引致的县域加总生产率相对增加。在一般均衡下,我们发现铁路大幅提高了全国加总生产率。通过考虑投入扭曲,我们估计铁路带来的加总经济收益远大于先前的估计。我们的估计强调,当经济中存在无效率时,广泛使用的基础设施或技术可能产生大得多的经济影响。

Abstract

We examine aggregate economic gains in the United States as the railroad network expanded in the nineteenth century. Using data from the Census of Manufactures, we estimate relative increases in county aggregate productivity from relative increases in county market access. In general equilibrium, we find that the railroads substantially increased national aggregate productivity. By accounting for input distortions, we estimate much larger aggregate economic gains from the railroads than previous estimates. Our estimates highlight how broadly-used infrastructure or technologies can have much larger economic impacts when there are inefficiencies in the economy.
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