← ireadpaper · 顶刊中的公共政策研究

天然气陷阱:战胜煤炭还是输给可再生能源

The Gas Trap: Outcompeting Coal versus Renewables
Journal of Political Economy · 2026 · Bård Harstad、Katinka Holtsmark

中文摘要

我们分析了关注气候问题的天然气生产者所面临的一个根本性困境与时间不一致问题。短期内,增加产量以在与煤炭的竞争中胜出颇具诱惑力。然而,当这一政策被市场预期到时,可再生能源投资将会下降,最终排放量反而可能上升。当天然气生产者无法做出预先承诺时,其政策可能适得其反。一个应用于欧洲的模拟版本证实,天然气陷阱在数量上是重要的。我们讨论了这一结果的稳健性以及可能的解决方案,包括从直接投资可再生能源到对天然气勘探与搜寻征税等多种举措。

Abstract

We analyze a fundamental dilemma and time-inconsistency problem facing climate-concerned producers of natural gas. In the short term, it is tempting to produce more to outcompete coal. When this policy is anticipated, however, investments in renewables fall and emissions may ultimately increase. When the gas producers cannot precommit, their policies can be counterproductive. A simulated version applied to Europe verifies that the gas trap is quantitatively important. We discuss the robustness of this result and possible solutions, ranging from direct investments in renewables to taxes on the search and exploration of gas.
在 ireadpaper 查看全部 →