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代际保险

Intergenerational Insurance
Journal of Political Economy · 2024 · Francesco Lancia、Alessia Russo、Tim Worrall

中文摘要

当年轻一代可以违约先前承诺向老一代进行的转移支付时,相继的各代应当如何相互保险?本文研究了在每一代的参与约束下,最大化所有世代预期折现效用的代际保险。若完全保险无法实现,则即使环境是平稳的,最优代际保险也依赖于历史。世代冲击带来的风险通过周期性的“重置”向未来分散。如果我们在债务的意义上解释代际保险,则财政反应函数是非线性的,且债务的风险溢价低于完全保险下的风险溢价。

Abstract

How should successive generations insure each other when the young can default on previously promised transfers to the old? This paper studies intergenerational insurance that maximizes the expected discounted utility of all generations subject to participation constraints for each generation. If complete insurance is unattainable, the optimal intergenerational insurance is history dependent even when the environment is stationary. The risk from a generational shock is spread into the future with periodic “resetting.” If we interpret intergenerational insurance in terms of debt, the fiscal reaction function is nonlinear and the risk premium on debt is lower than the risk premium with complete insurance.
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