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失业者能否借款?对公共保险的启示

Can the Unemployed Borrow? Implications for Public Insurance
Journal of Political Economy · 2024 · J. Carter Braxton、Kyle Herkenhoff、Gordon M. Phillips

中文摘要

我们通过实证研究证实,失业者仍能在相当程度上获得信贷;遭遇裁员时,不受信贷约束者会借款,而受信贷约束者则会违约并去杠杆。受这些发现启发,我们构建了一个包含信贷额度与劳动收入风险的理论模型,以分析对失业者的最优转移支付。由于信贷额度提供固定利率和固定限额,因此对裁员冲击不敏感,相较于债务逐期重新定价的情形,能为消费提供更充分的保险。在美国现有的信贷额度水平下,政府可以最优地减少对失业者的转移支付;而在债务反事实地逐期重新定价的情形下,这一结论并不成立。

Abstract

We empirically establish that unemployed individuals maintain significant access to credit and that upon a layoff, the unconstrained borrow while the constrained default and delever. Motivated by these findings, we develop a theory of credit lines and labor income risk to analyze optimal transfers to the unemployed. Since credit lines offer fixed interest rates and limits, credit lines are unresponsive to layoffs and provide greater consumption insurance relative to when debt is repriced period by period. At US levels of credit lines, the government can optimally reduce transfers to the unemployed, whereas this is not true when debt is counterfactually repriced period by period.
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