战斗部署对退伍军人状况的影响

中文摘要

2001年至2021年间，数百万军人被部署至伊拉克或阿富汗，与此同时，退伍军人事务部的伤残补偿金支出增至原来的四倍，退伍军人自杀率迅速上升。我们估计了战斗部署对退伍军人福祉下降的因果贡献。部署增加了受伤、战斗死亡和伤残补偿，但我们发现，其对自杀、绝望致死、财务健康、监禁或教育的影响有限。我们的估计表明，部署既无法解释近期伤残补偿金支出的增长——这一增长更可能由政策变化驱动，也无法解释非战斗死亡人数的激增——这一现象更适合由军人可观测特征的变化来解释。

Abstract

As millions of soldiers deployed to Iraq or Afghanistan between 2001 and 2021, Veteran Affairs Disability Compensation payments quadrupled and the veteran suicide rate rose rapidly. We estimate the causal contribution of combat deployments to declining veteran well-being. Deployments increase injuries, combat deaths, and disability compensation, but we find limited effects on suicide, deaths of despair, financial health, incarceration, or education. Our estimates suggest that deployment cannot explain either the recent rise in disability payments, which is more likely driven by policy changes, or the surge in noncombat deaths, which is better explained by shifts in observable characteristics of soldiers.