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证据采纳的瓶颈

Bottlenecks for Evidence Adoption
Journal of Political Economy · 2024 · Stefano DellaVigna、Woojin Kim、Elizabeth Linos

中文摘要

政府越来越多地使用随机对照试验(RCT)来检验创新举措,但我们对政府如何将试验结果纳入政策制定过程知之甚少。我们研究了美国30个城市与一个全国性助推小组合作开展的73项随机对照试验。在27%的案例中,城市将助推干预措施采纳到其沟通实践中。我们发现,证据的强度以及城市的关键特征并不能有力预测采纳行为;相反,最大的预测因素是该项随机对照试验是利用了既有沟通渠道,还是新建的沟通渠道来实施的。我们将组织惯性视为一个主要解释:对既有基础设施的调整更自然地融入后续流程之中。

Abstract

Governments increasingly use RCTs to test innovations, yet we know little about how they incorporate results into policy-making. We study 30 U.S. cities that ran 73 RCTs with a national Nudge Unit. Cities adopt a nudge treatment into their communications in 27% of the cases. We find that the strength of the evidence and key city features do not strongly predict adoption; instead, the largest predictor is whether the RCT was implemented using pre-existing communication, as opposed to new communication. We identify organizational inertia as a leading explanation: changes to pre-existing infrastructure are more naturally folded into subsequent processes.
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