预期、感染与经济活动
Expectations, Infections, and Economic Activity
Journal of Political Economy · 2024 · Martin Eichenbaum、Miguel Godinho de Matos、Francisco Lima、Sérgio Rebelo、Mathias Trabandt
中文摘要
本文构建了一个定量理论，用以分析人们如何权衡感染风险与参与社会互动的收益，而这类社会互动会加剧传染病的传播。我们的分析框架同时考虑了公共政策和私人行为对疾病传播的影响。我们利用一套新颖的微观面板数据集对模型进行评估，该数据集涵盖了葡萄牙新冠疫情前三波期间年轻人和老年人的消费支出情况。我们的模型凸显了预期在塑造人类行为如何影响疫情动态方面所起的关键作用。
Abstract
This paper develops a quantitative theory of how people weigh the risks of infections against the benefits of engaging in social interactions that contribute to the spread of infectious diseases. Our framework takes into account the effects of public policies and private behavior on the spread of the disease. We evaluate the model using a novel micro panel dataset on consumption expenditures of young and older people across the first three waves of COVID-19 in Portugal. Our model highlights the critical role of expectations in shaping how human behavior influences the dynamics of epidemics.