经济援助与向上流动：来自哥伦比亚 Ser Pilo Paga 的证据
Financial Aid and Upward Mobility: Evidence from Colombia’s Ser Pilo Paga
Journal of Political Economy · 2026 · [{"name": "Juliana Londoño-Vélez", "affiliation": ["National Bureau of Economic Research"]}, {"name": "Catherine Rodríguez", "affiliation": []}, {"name": "Fabio Sánchez", "affiliation": []}, {"name": "Luis Álvarez-Arango", "affiliation": ["University of California, Los Angeles"]}]
中文摘要
我们研究经济资助对向上流动的影响。我们估计哥伦比亚一项面向高成就、低社会经济地位学生的政策对其日后教育与劳动力市场结果的因果影响。利用断点回归设计、双重差分以及覆盖全人口的行政微观数据，我们发现该政策提高了高增值大学的入学率与完成率，尤其是在 STEM 领域。大学质量的提升带来了更大的技能发展。九年后，受助者收入高出 18 个对数点，且更有可能跻身收入最高的 1%。该政策缩小了大学质量、教育获得、技能发展、收入以及能力回报方面的社会经济差距，同时改善了公平与效率。
Abstract
We study the impact of financial aid on upward mobility. We estimate the causal impacts of a Colombian policy targeting high-achieving, low-socioeconomic-status students on later-life educational and labor market outcomes. Using regression discontinuity design, difference-in-differences, and population-wide administrative microdata, we find that the policy boosted attendance and completion at high-value-added colleges, particularly in STEM fields. Improved college quality led to greater skill development. Nine years later, recipients earn 18 log points more and are more likely to reach the top 1%. The policy narrowed socioeconomic gaps in college quality, attainment, skill development, earnings, and returns to ability, improving equity and efficiency.
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