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儿童早期发展政策的宏观经济后果

The Macroeconomic Consequences of Early Childhood Development Policies
Journal of Political Economy · 2026 · Diego Daruich

中文摘要

为研究长期、大规模的儿童早期政策,本文将儿童早期投资纳入一个使用美国数据校准的一般均衡异质性主体世代交叠模型。在该模型中,对一项短期、小规模儿童早期项目进行随机对照试验评估所预测的儿童教育和收入效应,与经验证据相近。然而,即使考虑一般均衡效应和税收效应,一项长期、大规模项目产生的福利增益仍是短期、小规模项目的两倍以上。造成这一差异的关键在于,对一个儿童进行投资不仅能提高其自身技能,还能为后代创造更好的祖先。

Abstract

To study long-run large-scale early childhood policies, this paper incorporates early childhood investments into a general equilibrium heterogeneous agent overlapping generations model calibrated using US data. A randomized controlled trial evaluation of a short-run small-scale early childhood program in the model predicts effects on children’s education and income that are similar to the empirical evidence. A long-run large-scale program, however, yields over twice as large welfare gains as those of a short-run small-scale program even after considering general equilibrium and taxation effects. Key to this difference is that investing in a child not only improves her skills but also creates better ancestors for future generations.

📖 解析

本文已有三模型交叉精读卡片, 登录后可在站内查看结构化解读与关键图表。
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