儿童早期发展政策的宏观经济后果
The Macroeconomic Consequences of Early Childhood Development Policies
Journal of Political Economy · 2026 · [{"name": "Diego Daruich", "affiliation": ["University of Southern California", "California Southern University"]}]
中文摘要
为研究长期、大规模的早期儿童政策，本文将早期儿童投资纳入一个使用美国数据校准的一般均衡异质性主体世代交叠模型。模型中对一项短期、小规模早期儿童项目的随机对照试验评估，预测了其对儿童教育和收入的影响，这些影响与实证证据相近。然而，即使在考虑一般均衡效应和税收效应之后，长期、大规模项目产生的福利收益仍超过短期、小规模项目的两倍。造成这一差异的关键在于：对儿童的投资不仅提升其自身技能，还为后代创造了更好的祖辈。
Abstract
To study long-run large-scale early childhood policies, this paper incorporates early childhood investments into a general equilibrium heterogeneous agent overlapping generations model calibrated using US data. A randomized controlled trial evaluation of a short-run small-scale early childhood program in the model predicts effects on children’s education and income that are similar to the empirical evidence. A long-run large-scale program, however, yields over twice as large welfare gains as those of a short-run small-scale program even after considering general equilibrium and taxation effects. Key to this difference is that investing in a child not only improves her skills but also creates better ancestors for future generations.