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房价动态、最优贷款价值比上限与流动性陷阱

House Price Dynamics, Optimal LTV Limits and the Liquidity Trap
Review of Economic Studies · 2023 · Andrea Ferrero、Richard Harrison、Benjamin Nelson

中文摘要

本文在一个存在名义刚性和金融摩擦的模型中,研究宏观审慎工具——贷款价值比(LTV)上限——的最优设计及其对货币政策的影响。分析同时考虑了名义利率的有效下限,以及贷款价值比上限刺激信贷需求能力的上限。基于福利的损失函数表明,宏观审慎政策可以发挥改善风险分担的作用。最优贷款价值比上限具有很强的逆周期性。在房价繁荣—崩跌过程中,积极运用贷款价值比上限能够缓解债务去杠杆动态,并防止经济陷入流动性陷阱。

Abstract

Abstract This paper studies the optimal design of a macro-prudential instrument, a loan-to-value (LTV) limit, and its implications for monetary policy in a model with nominal rigidities and financial frictions. The analysis accounts for both an effective lower bound on the nominal interest rate and an upper bound on the ability of LTV limits to stimulate credit demand. The welfare-based loss function features a role for macro-prudential policy to enhance risk-sharing. Optimal LTV limits are strongly countercyclical. In a house price boom-bust episode, the active use of LTV limits alleviates debt-deleveraging dynamics and prevents the economy from falling into a liquidity trap.
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