大宗商品出口国的财政顺周期性：程度如何及原因何在？
Fiscal Procyclicality in Commodity Exporting Countries: How Much Does it Pour and Why?
American Economic Journal: Economic Policy · 2023 · [{"name": "Francisco Arroyo Marioli", "affiliation": ["National Bureau of Economic Research", "World Bank", "Johns Hopkins University"]}, {"name": "Carlos Végh", "affiliation": ["National Bureau of Economic Research", "World Bank", "Johns Hopkins University"]}]
中文摘要
大量文献表明，财政政策在新兴市场/发展中国家呈顺周期性，而在发达经济体则呈非周期/逆周期性。本文分析大宗商品出口国的财政顺周期性，并作出两项新贡献。第一，基于“屋漏偏逢连夜雨”现象（即紧缩性财政政策会放大经济周期），本文表明，在大宗商品价格下跌后，政府支出平均使经济周期放大的幅度相当于产出初始降幅的 21%。第二，本文将财政顺周期性的福利成本估计为大宗商品经济周期的 36%。（JEL E32, E62, F14, H50, O19, Q02）
Abstract
A large literature has documented that fiscal policy is procyclical in emerging markets/developing countries and acyclical/countercyclical in advanced economies. This paper analyzes fiscal procyclicality in commodity-exporting countries. The paper makes two novel contributions. First, based on the “when it rains, it pours” phenomenon (that is, contractionary fiscal policy amplifies the business cycle), the paper shows that, on average, government spending magnifies the business cycle by 21 percent of the initial drop in output following a fall in commodity prices. Second, the paper estimates the welfare costs of fiscal procyclicality at 36 percent of the commodity business cycle. (JEL E32, E62, F14, H50, O19, Q02)