Review of Economic Studies · 2023 · J.L. Cruz、Esteban Rossi‐Hansberg
中文摘要
全球变暖是一种波及全球且长期持续的现象，对各地经济产生异质性影响。本文提出了一个具有高空间分辨率的世界经济动态评估模型，以评估其后果。模型包含多种适应当地温度变化的机制，包括具有成本的贸易和迁移、地方技术创新以及地方生育率。本文以1°×1°的分辨率对模型进行量化，并估计损害函数，以确定在给定当地温度的条件下，温度变化对一个地区基础生产率和宜居性的影响。全球变暖造成的福利损失在不同地区之间差异很大，非洲和拉丁美洲部分地区的损失达到20%，而一些高纬度地区则有所受益。总体而言，空间不平等加剧。平均福利效应的不确定性较大，但各地相对损失的不确定性则小得多。研究表明，迁移和创新是重要的适应机制。本文使用该模型研究碳税、减排技术和清洁能源补贴的影响。碳税会推迟化石燃料的消费，并有助于使温度曲线趋于平缓，但当减排技术即将问世时，其效果会显著增强。
Abstract
Abstract Global warming is a worldwide and protracted phenomenon with heterogeneous local economic effects. We propose a dynamic economic assessment model of the world economy with high spatial resolution to assess its consequences. Our model features several forms of adaptation to local temperature changes, including costly trade and migration, local technological innovations, and local natality rates. We quantify the model at a 1∘×1∘ resolution and estimate damage functions that determine the impact of temperature changes on a region’s fundamental productivity and amenities conditional on local temperatures. Welfare losses from global warming are very heterogeneous across locations, with 20% losses in parts of Africa and Latin America but also gains in some northern latitudes. Overall, spatial inequality increases. Uncertainty about average welfare effects is significant but much smaller for relative losses across space. Migration and innovation are shown to be important adaptation mechanisms. We use the model to study the impact of carbon taxes, abatement technologies, and clean energy subsidies. Carbon taxes delay consumption of fossil fuels and help flatten the temperature curve but are much more effective when an abatement technology is forthcoming.