Journal of Public Economics · 2025 · Francesco Campo、Sara Giunti、Mariapia Mendola、Giulia Tura
中文摘要
2015年欧洲难民危机加剧了接收地区的反移民情绪，可能对难民融入产生非预期后果。我们考察危机后意大利各市镇政治反弹的异质性，并评估经济因素与社会文化因素在“接纳”难民（即融入的供给侧）方面的共同作用。通过利用准随机分散安置政策并采用因果森林方法，我们发现，难民暴露对反移民政治反弹的影响在较富裕地区以及凝聚型社会资本较多的地区显著更大。相反，桥接型社会资本较多的地区——以同既有移民群体之间有实质意义的跨群体接触（例如异族通婚）衡量——政治反弹较弱。我们利用这一异质性模式评估可最大限度减少政治反弹的反事实安置政策。结果表明，仅凭经济因素不足以遏制当地不满，而接收社区的社会文化维度对于设计有效的难民安置方案至关重要。
Abstract
The 2015 refugee crisis in Europe has fueled anti-immigrant sentiment in host regions, with potential unintended consequences for refugee integration. We examine the heterogeneity of political backlash across Italian municipalities post-crisis and assess the concomitant role of economic vs socio-cultural factors in “welcoming" refugees (i.e., the supply side of integration). By leveraging the quasi-random dispersal policy and using causal forests, we find that refugee exposure has a significantly higher impact on anti-immigration backlash in more affluent areas and those with more bonding social capital. Conversely, areas with more bridging social capital, as measured by meaningful intergroup contact with former immigrants (e.g., mixed marriages), show less political backlash. We exploit this pattern of heterogeneity to evaluate counterfactual resettlement policies that minimize backlash. Results show that economic factors alone are insufficient to stem local discontent, while the socio-cultural dimension of host communities is crucial for the design of effective refugee resettlement programs.