劳动供给对意外所得的反应

中文摘要

• 我们使用一项针对欧元区消费者的大规模调查，报告受访者会如何调整劳动供给以应对随机获得的意外所得。• 只有规模相对较大的冲击才会引发具有经济意义的劳动供给反应。• 研究结果意味着，普遍基本收入（UBI）式项目对劳动供给的负向激励效应有限。我们利用一项针对欧元区消费者的大规模调查开展实验，要求受访者报告在面对随机分配的意外所得情景时，会如何调整其劳动力市场参与、工作时长以及求职努力程度（如未就业）。意外所得会减少劳动供给，但仅在所得金额较大时如此。在广延边际上，25,000欧元或以下的所得没有影响，而50,000至100,000欧元的所得使工作概率降低1.5至3.5个百分点。在集约边际上，小额所得没有影响，而超过50,000欧元的所得会使每周工作时间减少约一小时。女性和临近退休的劳动者所受影响更强。在未就业受访者中，每增加10,000欧元意外所得，停止求职或降低求职强度者的比例下降1个百分点；其中，获得100,000欧元的年长者所受影响最强。

Abstract

• We use a large survey of euro area consumers and report how respondents would adjust their labor supply in response to random windfall gains. • Only relatively large shocks trigger economically meaningful labor supply responses. • Findings imply that UBI-style programs would have limited labor supply disincentives effects. Using a large survey of euro area consumers, we conduct an experiment in which respondents report how they would adjust their labor market participation, hours worked, and job search effort (if not employed) in response to randomly assigned windfall gain scenarios. Windfall gains reduce labor supply, but only when the gains are substantial. At the extensive margin, gains of €25,000 or less have no effects, while gains between €50,000 and €100,000 reduce the probability of working by 1.5 to 3.5 percentage points. At the intensive margin, small gains produce no impact, while gains above €50,000 lead to a reduction of approximately one hour of work per week. The effects among women and workers near retirement are stronger. The share of non-employed respondents who stop or reduce job search intensity declines by 1 percentage point for each €10,000 in windfall gain, with the strongest effects observed among older individuals receiving €100,000.