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揭示相当于GDP 21%的隐匿资产:来自阿根廷的证据

Revealing 21% of GDP in hidden assets: Evidence from Argentina
Journal of Public Economics · 2025 · Juliana Londoño-Vélez、Dario Tortarolo

中文摘要

阿根廷2016年的税收赦免促使总额相当于GDP 21%的隐匿资产得以披露,这一规模异常庞大,且主要集中于境外和最富有的0.1%人群。我们考察了这一执法举措如何影响纳税人行为、税收累进性和财政收入。税收遵从度有所提高,尤其是在高财富个人中,从而扩大了财富税和资本所得税的税基。随后针对境外资产的加税进一步增强了税收累进性,并提高了最富有0.1%人群的实际税率,带来了接近GDP 0.8%的财富税收入——位居全球最高水平之列。我们讨论了为何尽管此前的税收赦免均告失败,阿根廷2016年的一揽子政策却取得了异乎寻常的成效。

Abstract

Argentina’s 2016 tax amnesty led to the disclosure of hidden assets totaling 21 % of GDP—an exceptionally large amount, concentrated offshore and among the wealthiest 0.1 %. We examine how this enforcement initiative affected taxpayer behavior, tax progressivity, and revenue. Compliance improved—especially among high-wealth individuals—expanding the bases of both the wealth and capital income taxes. A subsequent tax hike on foreign assets further enhanced progressivity and raised effective tax rates on the top 0.1 %, generating nearly 0.8 % of GDP in wealth tax revenue—one of the highest yields globally. We discuss why, despite prior failed amnesties, Argentina’s 2016 policy package proved unusually effective.
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