中文摘要
我们考察乌克兰对无烟煤资源丰富的顿巴斯地区实施经济封锁的影响，以展示贸易制裁的效力如何可能因经由非参与国的贸易而被削弱。我们记录到，封锁于2017年3月实施后，俄罗斯报告从乌克兰的无烟煤进口急剧增加，而乌克兰则报告对俄罗斯完全没有任何出口。我们将这一“镜像统计”中的缺口解读为顿巴斯贸易改经俄罗斯的反映。与此同时，乌克兰从俄罗斯的无烟煤进口大幅增加（从近乎为零起步），这表明俄罗斯国内增加的无烟煤供给中有一部分被回出口至乌克兰。我们提供提示性证据表明，俄罗斯贸易商从买方垄断租金中获益，即以低价从顿巴斯购买无烟煤，而俄罗斯则以与其他出口市场相当的价格向乌克兰出售无烟煤。总体而言，我们的发现凸显了一些可能推高制裁成本并限制其效力的经济与地理特征。
Abstract
We examine the effects of Ukraine’s economic blockade of the anthracite-rich Donbas region, to demonstrate how trade sanctions’ efficacy can be undermined by trade through non-participatory nations. We document that after the blockade was imposed in March 2017, Russia reported a sharp increase in anthracite imports from Ukraine, while Ukraine reported no exports to Russia at all. We interpret this gap in “mirror statistics” as reflecting a shift in Donbas trade through Russia. Concurrently, Ukraine’s anthracite imports from Russia increased sharply (from near-zero), indicating that some of the increased supply of anthracite in Russia was exported back to Ukraine. We provide suggestive evidence that Russian traders benefited from monopsony rents, buying low-priced anthracite from Donbas while Russia sold anthracite to Ukraine at prices comparable to other export markets. Overall, our findings highlight some of the economic and geographic features that may raise the cost and limit the efficacy of sanctions.