The Effect of Low-Skill Immigration Restrictions on US Firms and Workers: Evidence from a Randomized Lottery
American Economic Journal: Applied Economics · 2026 · Michael A. Clemens、Ethan Lewis
中文摘要
在低技能非农岗位雇用外国工人的美国企业面临“H-2B”签证的约束性配额，该配额部分通过随机抽签分配。我们利用该抽签、一项新的企业调查以及一份预分析计划，评估该配额的边际影响。在低技能岗位上外生雇用更多H-2B工人的企业，其产量（弹性0.20–0.22）、投资（1.5–2.1）和利润（0.15）均有所增加。H-2B工人与美国工人之间的替代弹性非常低（0.8–2.2）。因此，对美国就业的总体影响为零或为正，在农村地区为正。取证分析表明，黑市劳动力的可替代性同样很低。（JEL J15, J24, J46, J61, J82, K37）
Abstract
US firms hiring foreign workers in low-skill nonfarm jobs face a binding quota on the “H-2B” visa, allocated in part through a randomized lottery. We evaluate the quota’s marginal impact using the lottery, a novel firm survey, and a pre-analysis plan. Firms exogenously employing more H-2B workers in low-skill jobs increase production (elasticity 0.20–0.22), investment (1.5–2.1), and profits (0.15). The elasticity of substitution between H-2B and US workers is very low (0.8–2.2). Thus, the effect on US employment is zero or positive overall, and positive in rural areas. Forensic analysis suggests similarly low substitutability of black-market labor. (JEL J15, J24, J46, J61, J82, K37)