低技能移民限制对美国企业和工人的影响：来自随机抽签的证据
The Effect of Low-Skill Immigration Restrictions on US Firms and Workers: Evidence from a Randomized Lottery
American Economic Journal: Applied Economics · 2022 · [{"name": "Michael A. Clemens", "affiliation": ["Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta", "National Bureau of Economic Research"]}, {"name": "Ethan Lewis", "affiliation": ["Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta", "Center for Global Development", "National Bureau of Economic Research"]}]
中文摘要
美国限制农业以外低技能岗位的工作签证, 并设置具有约束力的配额, 企业通过随机抽签获得配额。我们采用一项新的调查和预分析计划, 评估该配额对进入 2021 年 H-2B 签证抽签的企业的边际影响。在若干预注册子样本中, 被外生授权雇用更多移民的企业显著增加了产出(弹性 +0.16), 同时美国就业没有下降或有所增加(弹性 +0.10, 统计上不精确)。结果表明, 在与政策相关的职业中, 本土劳动力对外国劳动力的替代性非常低。取证分析表明, 黑市劳动力的替代性同样很低。
Abstract
The U.S. limits work visas for low-skill jobs outside of agriculture, with a binding quota that firms access via a randomized lottery. We evaluate the marginal impact of the quota on firms entering the 2021 H-2B visa lottery using a novel survey and pre-analysis plan. Firms exogenously authorized to employ more immigrants significantly increase production (elasticity +0.16) with no decrease or an increase in U.S. employment (elasticity +0.10, statistically imprecise) across several pre-registered subsamples. The results imply very low substitutability of native for foreign labor in the policy-relevant occupations. Forensic analysis suggests similarly low substitutability of black-market labor.