Career expectations and outcomes: Evidence (on gender gaps) from the economics job market
Journal of Public Economics · 2025 · Brooke Helppie‐McFall、Eric Parolin、Basit Zafar
中文摘要
本文考察经济学博士候选人在长期职业期望与结果方面的性别差距。为此，我们将关于博士候选人（来自2008–2010年就业市场队列）的丰富调查数据与截至2022年的公开工作经历和发表记录数据相匹配。我们记录了四个新的经验事实：（1）在职业期望上存在稳健的性别差距，女性在事前预期获得终身教职或定期发表的可能性约低10个百分点；（2）期望上的性别差距与学术结果上观察到的差距极为相似；（3）期望对结果具有相似的预测力，无论男女；（4）期望上的性别差距可分别解释终身教职与发表方面事后差距的约22%和14%。此外，利用报告期望时关系状态的变化，我们表明：在控制性别的条件下，（1）关于终身教职与发表的期望并不随关系状态而系统性不同，（2）期望的预测力不随个体的关系状态而不同。
Abstract
This paper investigates gender gaps in long-term career expectations and outcomes of PhD candidates in economics. For this purpose, we match rich survey data on PhD candidates (from the 2008–2010 job market cohorts) to public data on job history and publication records through 2022. We document four novel empirical facts: (1) there is a robust gender gap in career expectations, with females about 10 percentage points less likely to ex-ante expect to get tenure or publish regularly; (2) the gender gap in expectations is remarkably similar to the gap observed for academic outcomes; (3) expectations are similarly predictive of outcomes for males and females, and (4) gender gaps in expectations can explain about 22 % and 14 % of the ex-post gaps in tenure and publications, respectively. In addition, leveraging variation in relationship status at the time expectations are reported, we show that: conditional on gender, (1) expectations regarding tenure and publications do not differ systematically by relationship status, and (2) the predictive power of expectations does not differ by the relationship status of the individual.