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焚烧贫民窟:城市土地冲突与针对法维拉贫民窟的纵火行为

To burn a slum: Urban land conflicts and the use of arson against Favelas
Journal of Public Economics · 2025 · Rafael Pucci

中文摘要

本文研究产权保护执行薄弱情境下鲜少受到关注的城市土地冲突现象。我从理论和实证两方面考察将纵火作为暴力手段、强迫清除城市高价值土地上贫民窟的行为。利用精细的地理编码数据,我采用面板回归和双重差分分析,证明贫民窟发生火灾的概率随土地价格上涨而大幅增加。这一效应是非线性的,且完全由坐落于私人土地上的贫民窟所驱动,凸显了纵火背后的强激励作用。这些结果说明了城市土地冲突为何会与农村土地冲突产生不同的结果。

Abstract

This paper investigates the understudied phenomenon of urban land conflicts in contexts with weak enforcement of property rights. I examine, both theoretically and empirically, the use of arson as a violent tool to force slum removal from high-value land in cities. Leveraging fine-grained geocoded data, I employ panel regression and Difference-in-Differences analyses to demonstrate that the probability of slum fires dramatically increases with rising land prices. This effect is nonlinear and driven exclusively by slums situated on private lands, highlighting the role of high-powered incentives behind arson. These results illustrate how urban land conflicts can have different outcomes than their rural counterparts.
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