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临时增值税减税的完全、持久且对称的价格传导

The full, persistent, and symmetric pass-through of a temporary VAT cut
Journal of Public Economics · 2025 · Tiago Bernardino、Ricardo Duque Gabriel、João Quelhas、Márcia Silva-Pereira

中文摘要

我们考察了葡萄牙对特定食品临时下调增值税(VAT)向消费者价格的传导。利用一个新颖的每日在线价格数据集,我们发现,增值税减税完全传导至消费者价格,这一效应在政策实施期间持续存在,且在政策撤销后,价格回归至实施前的趋势。我们讨论了可能推动这一结果的两种机制:在高通胀环境下该政策对消费者的显著性,以及政策实施时生产者价格的下降。我们估计,该政策在实施之初使通货膨胀率降低了0.68个百分点。

Abstract

We investigate the pass-through of a temporary value-added tax (VAT) cut on selected food products to consumer prices in Portugal. Exploiting a novel data set of daily online prices, we find that the VAT cut was fully transmitted to consumer prices, persisted throughout the policy duration, and prices returned to the pre-implementation trend after reversal. We discuss two potential mechanisms driving this result: the policy’s salience to consumers in a high-inflation environment and the decline in producer prices when implemented. We estimate that the policy reduced the inflation rate by 0.68 percentage points on impact.
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