中文摘要
本文研究队列效应对政治的动态影响。我们提出了一个理论框架，其中包含政治的动态社会学习模型，队列效应由前几代人的政治决策内生决定。这一过程凸显了政治经历在塑造年轻队列信念方面的作用，而随着这些个体逐渐成熟，其信念又会影响政策决策。我们阐明了这些动态代际关联如何导致两极分化队列与凝聚型队列的周期性交替模式。在所提出的模型中，形成于政治共识时期的队列对最优政策较为陌生，因此在随机外部冲击的作用下，公众意见呈现较大的方差。相反，在两极分化和政治更替时期成熟起来的队列对最优政策有更多了解，从而形成更具凝聚力的公众意见。值得注意的是，我们的模型表明，由于这些动态关联，暂时性冲击可能对政治产生持久影响。我们还使用美国全国选举研究（ANES）调查数据提供了一些提示性证据，表明不同队列的意见呈现出不同程度的方差。
Abstract
This paper investigates the dynamic ramifications of cohort effects on politics. We propose a theoretical framework that encompasses a dynamic social-learning model of politics, where cohort effects are endogenously derived from preceding generations’ political decisions. This process underscores the role of political experiences in shaping the beliefs of younger cohorts, which subsequently influence policy decisions as these individuals mature. We demonstrate how these dynamic intergenerational linkages lead to cyclical patterns of polarised and cohesive cohorts. In the proposed model, cohorts emerging during periods of political consensus display less familiarity with optimal policies, resulting, due to random external shocks, in high variance of public opinions. Conversely, cohorts maturing amidst polarisation and political turnover demonstrate greater knowledge about optimal policies, leading to more cohesive public opinions. Notably, our model suggests that transitory shocks can exert persistent influence on politics due to these dynamic linkages. We also present some suggestive evidence, using ANES surveys, showing that different cohorts’ opinions exhibit distinct levels of variance.