Journal of Public Economics · 2025 · Erkmen G. Aslim、Wei Fu、Erdal Tekin、Shijun You
中文摘要
本文使用美国家庭脉搏调查数据,考察新冠疫苗接种对食物不足的影响。我们的主要研究设计利用各州疫苗接种资格随时间的变化作为工具变量,以应对疫苗接种决策的内生性问题。我们发现,疫苗接种对食物困难产生了实质性影响,使食物不足的可能性降低了24%,在少数族裔和财务弱势群体中效果更为显著。这些结果在采用其他模型设定以及将断点回归作为替代识别策略时仍然稳健。我们还表明,疫苗接种资格对食品援助项目产生了正向溢出效应,尤其是减少了补充营养援助计划的参与及其福利的使用,这表明疫苗接种政策有助于减轻公共卫生危机期间的政府财政负担。我们的分析详细揭示了疫苗接种与食物不足之间可能存在的作用机制。我们证明,疫苗接种同时改变了物质状况和财务预期。具体而言,疫苗接种增加了使用常规收入满足支出需求的比例,并减少了因无力负担而报告食物不足的情况。此外,我们发现疫苗接种改善了财务乐观情绪,这体现在对未来就业收入损失以及偿还抵押贷款和债务义务能力的预期上。我们的研究结果与以下观点一致:这种乐观情绪连同劳动力市场复苏,共同降低了预防性储蓄的必要性,减少了对政府援助的依赖,并促使家庭增加对食物等必需品的支出,最终降低了食物不足的发生率。
Abstract
This paper examines the impact of COVID-19 vaccination on food insufficiency in the United States, using data from the Household Pulse Survey. Our primary research design exploits variation in vaccine eligibility across states over time as an instrumental variable to address the endogeneity of vaccination decision. We find that vaccination had a substantial impact on food hardship by reducing the likelihood of food insufficiency by 24%, with even stronger effects among minority and financially disadvantaged populations. These results are robust to alternative specifications and the use of regression discontinuity as an alternative identification strategy. We also show that vaccine eligibility had a positive spillover impact on food assistance programs, notably reducing participation in the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program and the use of its benefits, suggesting that vaccination policies can help alleviate the government’s fiscal burden during public health crises. Our analysis offers detailed insights into the potential mechanisms linking vaccination to food insufficiency. We demonstrate that vaccination yields changes in both material circumstances and financial expectations. Specifically, vaccination increases the use of regular income for spending needs and reduces reports of insufficient food due to unaffordability. Additionally, we find that vaccination improves financial optimism, reflected in expectations for future employment income loss and the ability to meet mortgage and debt obligations. Our findings are consistent with the notion that this optimism, along with labor market recovery, diminished the need for precautionary savings, reduced reliance on government assistance, and encouraged household spending on essential goods like food, ultimately lowering food insufficiency.