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选民何时会“团结在旗帜周围”?政治信息的显著性

When do voters ‘rally around the flag’? The salience of political messages
Journal of Public Economics · 2025 · Yatish Arya、Apurav Yash Bhatiya

中文摘要

接触冲突会损害执政政府的选举前景,还是会产生“团结在旗帜周围”效应?此外,政治人物和媒体在将冲突接触转化为选票的过程中发挥何种作用?利用印度阵亡士兵家乡选区在冲突接触程度上的外生变异,并采用双重差分回归,我们发现这些选区中执政方的得票率有所上升,表明存在显著的“团结在旗帜周围”效应。只有在政治演说和媒体报道中受到高度关注的冲突才会呈现这一效应。这些发现凸显了政治信息的显著性在塑造选民对冲突反应中所发挥的作用。

Abstract

Does exposure to conflict harm the electoral prospects of the incumbent government or generate a “rally around the flag” effect? Additionally, what role do politicians and media play in converting conflict exposure into votes? Using exogenous variation in conflict exposure in the home constituencies of deceased soldiers in India and a difference-in-differences regression, we find an increase in incumbent vote share in these constituencies, indicating a significant “rally around the flag” effect. Only conflicts receiving heightened attention in political speeches and media coverage exhibit this effect. These findings highlight the salience of political messages in shaping voter responses to conflict.
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