移民、创新与增长
Immigration, Innovation, and Growth
American Economic Review · 2026 · [{"name": "Stephen Terry", "affiliation": ["Boston University", "National Bureau of Economic Research", "University of Michigan"]}, {"name": "Thomas Chaney", "affiliation": ["University of Southern California", "Institut d'Etudes Politiques de Paris", "California Southern University"]}, {"name": "Konrad Burchardi", "affiliation": ["Stockholm University", "Institute for International Economic and Political Studies", "Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies"]}, {"name": "Lisa Tarquinio", "affiliation": ["Western University"]}, {"name": "Tarek A. Hassan", "affiliation": ["Boston University", "Center for Economic and Policy Research", "National Bureau of Economic Research"]}]
中文摘要
我们提出了一种新颖的识别策略，通过将美国各县祖源构成的准随机差异与同期来自不同国家的移民流入相互作用，来分离各县层面的外生移民冲击。我们发现，在五年期视角下，移民对地方创新和工资具有正向因果影响。移民对创新和工资的正向动态影响超过了劳动供给增加所带来的短期负面影响。对一个内生增长与迁移模型的结构估计表明，1965年以来美国移民的增加可能使创新和工资提高了5%。（JEL J15, J22, J31, J61, O31, R11, R23）
Abstract
We propose a novel identification strategy to isolate exogenous immigration shocks across US counties, by interacting quasi-random variations in the composition of ancestry across counties with the contemporaneous inflow of migrants from different countries. We show a positive causal impact of immigration on local innovation and wages at the five-year horizon. The positive dynamic impact of immigration on innovation and wages dominates the short-run negative impact of increased labor supply. A structural estimation of a model of endogenous growth and migrations suggests the increased immigration to the United States since 1965 may have increased innovation and wages by 5 percent. (JEL J15, J22, J31, J61, O31, R11, R23)