Vote early and vote often? Detecting electoral fraud from the timing of 19th century elections
中文摘要
本文提出了一种识别选举舞弊的新方法。本文所考察的情境涉及重复投票者，即在19世纪美国国会选举期间跨多个州投票的个人。鉴于当时出行耗时较长，在同一天跨州投票存在困难，我们利用各州交错推行在11月第一个星期一之后的第一个星期二（1T1M）举行联邦选举这一制度安排。核心发现是，当最近的邻州协调采用1T1M时，县级投票率会下降。这一结果与采用1T1M使重复投票变得更加困难相一致。在机制方面，这一模式在尚未采用秘密投票制的州更为明显，与秘密投票制本身会减少选举舞弊相一致。该结果在通常竞争更激烈的开放席位选举中也更为明显。最后，这一模式还主要由人口较少的县驱动，与重复投票者尤其会抬高这些地区投票率相一致。• 我们提出了一种识别选举舞弊的新方法。• 19世纪投票日期的同步化减少了美国跨州重复投票。• 这一效应主要由美国南部驱动，并且发生在采用秘密投票制之前。
Abstract
This paper develops a new approach to detecting electoral fraud. Our context involves repeaters, individuals voting in multiple states in the U.S. during 19th Century Congressional Elections. Given high travel times, and the associated difficulties of voting in multiple states on the same day, we exploit the staggered introduction of holding federal elections on the first Tuesday after the first Monday in November (1T1M). The key finding is that county-level turnout rates fell when the closest neighboring state coordinated on 1T1M. This result is consistent with 1T1M adoption making repeating more difficult. In terms of mechanisms, the pattern is stronger in states that had not yet adopted the secret ballot, consistent with the secret ballot itself reducing voter fraud. The results are also stronger in open-seat elections, which tend to be more competitive. Finally, the pattern is also driven by smaller population counties, consistent with repeaters particularly inflating turnout rates in these places. • We develop a new approach to detecting electoral fraud. • The synchronization of voting dates in the 19th Century reduced out-of-state repeat voting in the U.S. • This was driven by the U.S. South and prior to the adoption of the secret ballot.