中文摘要
近几十年来，右翼民粹主义政党在许多西方民主国家的选举中取得了越来越大的成功。极右翼的这一崛起在很大程度上建立在工人阶级的支持之上，并与制造业的急剧衰退同时发生。本文分析了制造业衰退对奥地利极右翼崛起的贡献。总体而言，制造业就业的下降有力地推动了政治格局的右转；在1995年至2019年间观测到的极右翼得票份额增幅中，约三分之一可由制造业衰退解释。就推动制造业衰退的两股力量——国际贸易和自动化技术——的影响而言，研究结果表明二者对这一发展的贡献大致相当。• 制造业就业占比在大多数西方经济体中均有所下降 • 这一趋势与极右翼民粹主义政党的崛起同时发生 • 本文表明，制造业衰退推动了这一趋势 • 奥地利极右翼投票增幅中约32%是由这一衰退造成的 • 贸易和技术变革对这一效应的贡献大致相当
Abstract
In recent decades, right-wing populist parties have experienced increased electoral success in many Western democracies. This rise of the far-right, which is strongly built on the support of the working class, coincides with a sharp decline of the manufacturing sector. This paper analyzes the contribution of this manufacturing decline to the rise of the Austrian far-right. Overall, the decline in manufacturing employment has strongly contributed to this rightward shift in the political landscape, with the manufacturing decline explaining around one-third of the observed increase in far-right vote-shares between 1995 and 2019. Regarding the influences of the forces underlying the manufacturing decline, namely international trade and automation technologies, suggests that both forces contributed in roughly equal parts to this development. • The share of manufacturing employment has declined in most Western economies • This trend coincides with the rise of far-right populist parties • This paper shows that the manufacturing decline has contributed to this trend • Around 32% of the increase in far-right voting in Austria is caused by this decline • Trade and technological change have contributed in roughly equal parts to this effect