The effect of a ‘None of the above’ ballot paper option on voting behavior and election outcomes
中文摘要
我们研究选票上明确设置的空白投票选项“以上皆非”（NOTA）如何影响选民和政治候选人的行为以及选举结果。通过一系列调查实验和实验室实验，我们识别出将NOTA设为明确投票选项所涉及的权衡。一方面，它可以降低选民视为抗议候选人的候选人的得票率——这类候选人通常来自政治光谱的极端阵营——从而降低此类抗议候选人赢得选举的可能性。另一方面，由于预期到上述效应，当选票上设有NOTA时，建制派候选人对选民的重视程度可能会下降。有关选民对NOTA反应的证据来自两项在线调查实验，分别在2016年美国总统选举和2016年奥地利总统决选前数周开展。参与者面对的要么是原始选票，要么是我们增设了NOTA选项的选票。我们通过一项实验室实验考察政治人物对NOTA存在的动态反应；在该实验中，一名建制派候选人可以在利己和公平的政策提案之间作出选择，而选民可以在该建制派候选人和一个低效率的抗议选项之间作出选择。
Abstract
We study how an explicit blank vote option “None of the above” (NOTA) on the ballot paper affects the behavior of voters and political candidates as well as election results. In a series of survey and laboratory experiments we identify a tradeoff regarding making NOTA an explicit voting option. On the one hand it can reduce the vote share of candidates who voters consider as protest candidates, who often come from the extremes of the political spectrum, making it less likely that such a protest candidate wins the election. On the other hand, anticipating the above effect, establishment candidates may care less about the electorate when NOTA is on the ballot. Evidence on voters’ reaction to NOTA comes from two online survey experiments conducted in the weeks preceding the 2016 U.S. presidential election and the 2016 Austrian run-off election for president. Participants were subjected to either the original ballot paper or to a ballot paper where we added a NOTA option. We investigate the dynamic response of politicians to the presence of NOTA in a laboratory experiment in which an establishment candidate can decide between selfish and fair policy proposals and voters can choose between the establishment candidate and an inefficient protest option.