零和思维与美国政治分歧的根源
Zero-Sum Thinking and the Roots of US Political Differences
American Economic Review · 2026 · [{"name": "Sahil Chinoy", "affiliation": ["Harvard University Press"]}, {"name": "Nathan Nunn", "affiliation": ["University of British Columbia"]}, {"name": "Sandra Sequeira", "affiliation": ["London School of Economics and Political Science"]}, {"name": "Stefanie Stantcheva", "affiliation": ["Harvard University Press"]}]
中文摘要
我们考察零和思维的起源及其影响: 即认为一个个人或群体的收益往往以他人的损失为代价的信念。基于一项涵盖20,400名美国居民的新调查, 我们测量了零和思维、政治偏好、政策观点, 以及跨越四代人的丰富祖源信息。我们发现, 更强的零和心态与更支持政府再分配、基于种族和性别的平权行动以及更严格的移民政策密切相关。零和思维可追溯至个人及其祖先的经历, 涵盖诸多因素, 包括他们所经历的代际向上流动程度、是否移民至美国或居住于移民更多的地区, 以及是否曾被奴役或生活在奴役现象更普遍的地区。(JEL C83, D72, D91, H23, J15, J16, Z13)
Abstract
We investigate the origins and implications of zero-sum thinking: the belief that gains for one individual or group tend to come at the cost of others. Using a new survey of 20,400 US residents, we measure zero-sum thinking, political preferences, policy views, and a rich array of ancestral information spanning four generations. We find that a more zero-sum mindset is strongly associated with more support for government redistribution, race- and gender-based affirmative action, and more restrictive immigration policies. Zero-sum thinking can be traced back to the experiences of both the individual and their ancestors, encompassing factors such as the degree of intergenerational upward mobility they experienced, whether they immigrated to the United States or lived in a location with more immigrants, and whether they were enslaved or lived in a location with more enslavement. (JEL C83, D72, D91, H23, J15, J16, Z13)