How in-person conversations shape political polarization: Quasi-experimental evidence from a nationwide initiative
Journal of Public Economics · 2025 · Ximeng Fang、Sven Heuser、Lasse S. Stötzer
中文摘要
日益加剧的政治极化通常被归因于志同道合者之间的“回音室”效应，以及观点相左者之间缺乏社会互动。我们考察了德国一项大规模干预项目，该项目将陌生人两两配对，让他们私下进行面对面会谈，讨论具有分歧性的政治议题，由此提供了关于面对面交谈如何影响个体层面极化结果的准实验证据。我们发现了不对称效应：与志同道合者交谈会使政治观点变得更加极端（意识形态极化）；相比之下，与观点相左者交谈并未促使政治观点趋同，却显著减少了对意识形态外群体成员的负面信念和态度（情感极化），同时也更普遍地提升了人们感知到的社会凝聚力。与观点相左者交谈所产生的这些效应似乎主要由积极的人际接触体验所驱动。• 政治极化通常被归因于志同道合者之间的回音室效应。• 我们研究了德国一项促进政治交谈的大规模项目。• 这些交谈以面对面方式进行，不受引导，也不受观察。• 我们发现，与志同道合者交谈会加剧意识形态极化。• 与观点相左者交谈减少了情感极化，但未减少意识形态极化。
Abstract
Growing political polarization is often attributed to “echo chambers” among like-minded individuals and a lack of social interactions among contrary-minded individuals. We provide quasi-experimental evidence on the effects of in-person conversations on individual-level polarization outcomes, studying a large-scale intervention in Germany that matched pairs of strangers for private face-to-face meetings to discuss divisive political issues. We find asymmetric effects: conversations with like-minded individuals caused political views to become more extreme (ideological polarization); by contrast, conversations with contrary-minded individuals did not lead to a convergence of political views, but significantly reduced negative beliefs and attitudes toward ideological out-group members (affective polarization), while also improving perceived social cohesion more generally. These effects of contrary-minded conversations seem to be driven mostly by positive experiences of interpersonal contact. • Political polarization is often attributed to echo chambers among the like-minded. • We study a large-scale program in Germany that facilitates political conversations. • These conversations happen in-person and are unguided and unobserved. • We find that like-minded conversations increase ideological polarization. • Contrary-minded conversations reduced affective but not ideological polarization.