Reducing child marriages through CCTs: Evidence from a large-scale policy intervention in Indonesia
中文摘要
关于以贫困人口为对象的条件现金转移支付（CCT）能否成为减少童婚的有效工具，目前的经验证据有限。我们采用模糊断点回归（Fuzzy Regression Discontinuity）设计，将印度尼西亚的行政推广数据与政府贫困普查及目标识别数据库进行匹配，估计发现，该国旗舰条件现金转移支付项目（PKH）使印度尼西亚农村女孩的童婚率降低了约3.5个百分点（约40%）。我们得出结论，条件现金转移支付可能有助于打破童婚这一持续存在的习俗。• 利用大规模行政数据研究条件现金转移支付对童婚的影响。• 提供了关于条件现金转移支付对儿童（14—17岁）影响的罕见证据。• 展示了条件现金转移支付在东南亚地区有效性的证据。• 公共部门实施的条件现金转移支付有助于打破童婚这一持续存在的习俗。
Abstract
There is limited empirical evidence on whether poverty-targeted conditional cash transfers (CCTs) can be an effective tool in reducing child marriages. Employing a Fuzzy Regression Discontinuity design that uses administrative roll-out data matched to the government’s poverty census and targeting database in Indonesia, we estimate that the country’s flagship CCT (PKH) reduced child marriages of girls in rural Indonesia by about 3.5 percentage points (about 40 percent). We conclude that CCTs may help break the persistent practice of child marriages. • Large scale administrative data on the impact of CCTs on child marriages. • Rare evidence on the impact of CCTs on children (age 14-17). • Illustration of evidence on the effectiveness of CCTs for the Southeast Asia region. • Public sector implemented CCTs can help break the persistent practice of child marriages.