当女性突然停止接收现金转移时会发生什么？

Journal of Public Economics · 2026 · [{"name": "Nasir Iqbal", "affiliation": ["Pakistan Institute of Development Economics"]}, {"name": "Amen Jalal", "affiliation": ["London School of Economics and Political Science"]}, {"name": "Mahreen Mahmud", "affiliation": ["University of Exeter"]}, {"name": "Kate Vyborny", "affiliation": ["World Bank"]}]

中文摘要

面向女性的现金转移支付被广泛用作提升女性赋权的政策工具。然而，人们对支付停止后会发生什么知之甚少——无论其停止是由于预算削减、项目变更，还是受助者'毕业'退出。我们研究女性如何受到意外退出项目的影响，以及当她们不再把现金带回家时是否会遭遇反弹。围绕修订后的资格门槛，我们采用断点回归双重差分（regression discontinuity-in-differences）设计，追踪了2333名退出巴基斯坦最大现金转移支付项目的女性，分别在其退出项目之前和退出一年后进行调查。基于对赋权、亲密伴侣暴力和福祉的全面测量，我们未发现退出一年后存在负面影响的证据。这些结果表明，女性在项目期间获得的收益并未因退出时的不利反应而被逆转。

Abstract

Female-targeted cash transfers are widely used as a policy tool to enhance women’s empowerment. However, little is known about what happens when payments stop – whether due to budget cuts, program changes, or recipient graduation. We study how women are affected by unanticipated program exit, and whether they experience backlash when they stop bringing cash home. Using a regression discontinuity-in-differences design around a revised eligibility threshold, we follow 2333 women exiting Pakistan’s largest cash transfer program, surveying them before program exit and one year after it. Drawing on comprehensive measures of empowerment, intimate partner violence, and well-being, we find no evidence of negative impacts a year after exit. These results suggest that the gains experienced by women during the program are not undone by adverse reactions upon exit.