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战争对再分配偏好的影响

The effect of war on redistribution preferences
Journal of Public Economics · 2024 · Alexei Zakharov、Philipp Chapkovski

中文摘要

战争是否会改变人们对国家再分配政策的偏好?我们利用一项预注册调查实验分析这一问题,该实验于俄乌战争期间在俄罗斯开展,涉及N = 3920名受访者。调查问题的顺序被人为操纵,使部分受访者在结果变量测量之前先被提醒战争的存在。我们发现,在支持战争的个体中,战争提醒提高了其再分配偏好。我们的两部分设计使我们能够考察这一效应的作用渠道;我们发现,这一效应部分源于对政府信任度的提高。我们还观察到,支持战争的个体的亲社会偏好有所增加,但这一效应与再分配偏好的增加无关。

Abstract

Do wars change preferences for redistributive state policies? We analyze this question using a preregistered survey experiment involving N = 3920 respondents in Russia conducted during the Russo-Ukrainian war. The order of questions in the survey was manipulated to remind some respondents of the war before measuring the outcome variables. We find that among individuals who favor the war, the war reminder increases preferences for redistribution. Our two-part design allows us to investigate the channels for this effect; we find that it is partly due to increased trust in the government. We also observe an increase in prosocial preferences among individuals who support the war, but this effect is not associated with the increase in redistribution preferences.
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