Journal of Public Economics · 2024 · David P. Brown、Lucija Muehlenbachs
中文摘要
为避免电力基础设施引发野火，数百万加利福尼亚人的供电曾被中断，每次持续数小时至数天。我们发现，在停电时间最长的邮政编码地区，屋顶太阳能加电池储能系统的采用有所增加。仅安装屋顶太阳能板并不能帮助家庭避免停电，但太阳能加电池储能系统可以。利用这一事实，我们获得了对电力可靠性支付意愿的显示偏好估计——即失负荷价值，这是电力市场设计中的一个关键参数。我们的估计均值为每兆瓦时4,980美元，表明加利福尼亚州为预防野火而实施的停电，给居民电力消费者造成了因放弃消费而产生的4.06亿美元损失。• 我们估计了停电对家庭采用太阳能加电池储能系统的影响；作为一种新兴技术，该系统属于防御性投资，可部分或完全避免停电。• 我们研究了用于避免电力基础设施引发野火的公共安全断电措施。• 这些停电影响了数百万加利福尼亚人，每次持续数小时至数天。• 观察到的太阳能加储能系统采用情况，使我们能够估计居民用户为避免停电而产生的支付意愿，即所谓的失负荷价值；我们估计该值约为每兆瓦时5,000美元。
Abstract
To avoid electric-infrastructure-induced wildfires, millions of Californians had their power cut for hours to days at a time. We show that rooftop solar-plus-battery-storage systems increased in zip codes with the longest power outages. Rooftop solar panels alone will not help a household avert outages, but a solar-plus-battery-storage system will. Using this fact, we obtain a revealed-preference estimate of the willingness to pay for electricity reliability, the Value of Lost Load, a key parameter for electricity market design. Our estimate, with an average of $4,980/MWh, suggests California’s wildfire-prevention outages resulted in losses from foregone consumption of $406 million to residential electricity consumers. • We estimate the impact of power outages on the household adoption of solar-plus-battery systems, an emerging technology that serves as a defensive investment to partially or fully avoid outages. • We study Public Safety Power Shutoffs, used to avoid electric-infrastructure-induced wildfires. • The outages affected millions of Californians for hours to days at a time. • The observed adoptions of solar-plus-storage allow us to estimate the willingness to pay to avoid power outages for residential customers, the so-called Value of Lost Load, which we estimate to be approximately $5,000/MWh.