中文摘要
我们提供了关于过去25年间英国经济冲击对政治支持、投票行为和政治观点影响的新证据。我们利用失业这一突发、大规模且持久的冲击，追踪其发生后长达10年间对个人政治结果的影响。借助个人失业前后的详细信息，我们对比较组进行重新加权，使其在可观测特征、既有政治支持和投票行为方面与失业者高度相似。我们发现，失业对执政党的支持率和得票率具有一致且持久的影响，而对政治参与的影响持续时间较短。我们发现，失业对边缘政党或民粹主义政党支持度的影响有限。在英国脱欧的背景下，失业者反对欧盟的比例要高得多，但这主要源于既有差异，失业事件本身并未加剧这些差异。• 失业导致对执政党的支持率下降2—4个百分点。• 几乎没有证据表明失业会增加对边缘政党的支持。• 失业对反对欧盟没有显著影响。• 对执政党支持度的变化持续时间超过单个选举周期。
Abstract
We provide new evidence on the effects of economic shocks on political support, voting behaviour and political opinions over the last 25 years in the UK. We exploit a sudden, large and long-lasting shock in the form of job loss and trace out its impact on individual political outcomes for up to 10 years after the event. The availability of detailed information on individuals before and after the job loss event allows us to reweight a comparison group to closely mimic the job losers in terms of their observable characteristics, pre-existing political support and voting behaviour. We find consistent and long-lasting effects on support and votes for the incumbent party, and shorter-lived effects on political engagement. We find limited impact on the support for fringe or populist parties. In the context of Brexit, opposition to the EU was much higher amongst those who lost their jobs, but this was largely due to pre-existing differences which were not exacerbated by the job loss event itself. • Job loss causes a 2–4 percentage point reduction in support for the incumbent party. • Little evidence that job loss increases support for fringe parties. • Job loss has no significant effect on opposition to the EU. • Changes in support for the incumbent are persistent beyond a single electoral cycle.