中文摘要
本文考察联邦转移支付向墨西哥各市镇分配所受到的冲击，如何影响市镇对旨在为生产性投资融资的长期贷款的需求。转移支付是市镇偿债和抵押品的主要来源。利用细粒度监管数据，我发现该冲击对市镇贷款规模（以全国市镇贷款总额标准化）具有正向影响，这一影响由市镇对私人贷款机构的债务所驱动。然而，尽管许多地方政府尚未获得银行服务，我发现该冲击对贷款获取、偿还，或集约边际上的贷款规模，平均而言影响很小或没有影响。偿付能力较低且已有其他既有债务的地方政府对该冲击更为敏感。具体而言，拥有短期债务的地方政府更有可能开始向私人贷款机构借款，而已发行债券的地方政府则转向开发银行。新增收入主要用于经常性支出，而非资本性支出。这些发现强调，在发展中国家深化子国家信贷市场这一政策目标还必须着力解决地方投资能力薄弱的问题。
Abstract
This paper examines how a shock to the distribution of federal transfers to Mexican municipalities affects their demand for long-term loans aimed at funding productive investments. Transfers are municipalities’ main source of debt payment and collateral. Using granular supervisory data, I find a positive effect on municipalities’ loan volume, normalized by the country’s total municipal loans, driven by obligations with private lenders. However, I find little or no average effect on take-up — despite many governments being unbanked —, repayment, or volume at the intensive margin. Governments with lower payment capacity and other preexisting debt are more sensitive to the shock. In particular, those with short-term debt are more likely to start borrowing from private lenders, while those with bonds turn to the development bank. The additional revenue mostly funds current rather than capital expenditures. These findings highlight that the policy goal of deepening subnational credit markets in developing countries must also address weaknesses in local investment capacities.