临时解雇、召回丢失与周期性失业动态
Temporary Layoffs, Loss-of-Recall, and Cyclical Unemployment Dynamics
American Economic Review · 2026 · [{"name": "Mark Gertler", "affiliation": ["New York University"]}, {"name": "Christopher Huckfeldt", "affiliation": ["Federal Reserve", "Federal Reserve Board of Governors"]}, {"name": "Antonella Trigari", "affiliation": ["Bocconi University"]}]
中文摘要
我们重新考察临时裁员在经济周期中的作用。尽管一些研究强调了召回雇佣所带来的稳定作用, 但我们基于数据量化了一种重要的、因“召回丧失”而产生的逆周期不稳定效应——即处于临时裁员失业状态的工人永久性地失去其工作。我们构建了一个定量模型, 允许工人在就业、临时裁员失业与无工作失业之间发生内生流动。该模型刻画了疫情前和疫情后的失业动态, 包括召回丧失的收缩性作用。我们利用该结构模型表明, 薪资保护计划带来了可观的就业增长, 部分原因在于其显著减少了召回丧失。(JEL E24, E32, I12, J41, J63, J64)
Abstract
We revisit the role of temporary layoffs in the business cycle. While some have emphasized a stabilizing effect due to recall hiring, we quantify from the data an important countercyclical destabilizing effect due to “loss-of-recall,” whereby workers in temporary-layoff unemployment lose their job permanently. We develop a quantitative model allowing for endogenous flows of workers across employment and both temporary-layoff and jobless unemployment. The model captures both pre- and post-pandemic unemployment dynamics, including the contractionary role of loss-of-recall. We use our structural model to show that the Paycheck Protection Program generated sizable employment gains, in part by significantly reducing loss-of-recall. (JEL E24, E32, I12, J41, J63, J64)