中文摘要
本文研究一项金额异常庞大的无条件现金福利的推出对劳动供给的影响。我利用波兰儿童福利计划的独特设计，采用双重差分设计识别每月转移支付的效应。该转移支付在短期内没有影响，但在中期对家庭劳动供给产生了较大的负面影响。中期人口层面的估计表明，家庭每月每多获得100美元的儿童福利转移支付，其税后收入就会减少25美元，消费支出增加32美元，储蓄增加43美元。在社会经济地位较低的家庭中，这些负向劳动供给效应更大，且估计精度更高。进一步的证据表明，该计划对人力资本投资和家庭生产效率产生了积极影响。• 本文估计了一项大规模普惠性儿童福利计划推出的影响。• 我发现其对家庭劳动供给没有短期效应。• 现金转移支付在中期对家庭劳动供给产生了负面影响。• 这些效应集中在社会经济地位较低的家庭中。• 家庭增加了消费，包括在人力资本和家庭生产效率方面的投资。• 家庭储蓄增加了20%。
Abstract
I investigate the labor supply effects of the introduction of an exceptionally large unconditional cash benefit. I exploit the unique design of the child benefit program in Poland to identify the effects of the monthly transfer in a difference-in-differences design. The transfer had no short-term effects but caused sizable negative medium-term effects on household labor supply. In the medium run, population estimates indicate that for every extra 100 dollars in monthly child benefit transfers households received, they reduced their after-tax earnings by 25 dollars, spent 32 dollars on consumption, and saved 43 dollars. These negative labor supply effects are much larger and much more precisely estimated among households with low socioeconomic status. Additional evidence shows that the program had a positive impact on investments in human capital and home production efficiency. • I estimate the impact of the introduction of a large universal child benefit. • I find no short-term effects on household labor supply. • The cash transfer had a negative medium-term impact on household labor supply. • These effects were concentrated among low-socioeconomic status households. • Households increased their consumption, including investments in human capital and home production efficiency. • Households increased their savings by 20 percent.