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消费税减税与刺激支付

Consumption tax cuts vs stimulus payments
Journal of Public Economics · 2024 · Mehdi Bartal、Yvan Bécard

中文摘要

近期研究表明,在具有非李嘉图消费者行为的宏观经济模型中,统一转移支付等价于降息。也就是说,例如当短期利率的零下限约束生效时,政策制定者可以用刺激支付来替代常规货币政策。我们认为,在同一类模型中,暂时降低消费税比转移支付能产生更大的刺激效果——且对纳税人的成本相同。消费税减税同时激活收入渠道和替代渠道,促使财富分布中所有消费者做出强烈反应。通过在量化异质性主体新凯恩斯模型中模拟这些政策,我们发现,消费税减税带来的产出扩张幅度是转移支付政策的两倍。

Abstract

Recent work shows that in macroeconomic models with non-Ricardian consumer behavior, uniform transfers are equivalent to interest rate cuts. That is, policymakers can use stimulus payments to substitute for conventional monetary policy when, say, the zero lower bound on short-term rates binds. We argue that in the same class of models, temporarily reducing consumption taxes delivers more stimulus than transfers — at the same cost to the taxpayer. Consumption tax cuts activate both income and substitution channels and prompt a strong response from all consumers across the wealth distribution. Simulating these policies in a quantitative heterogeneous agent New Keynesian model, we find output expands twice as much.
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