中文摘要
经济学文献中的主流观点认为，选民尤其短视，这促使政府利用短期连任策略。在这种情况下，尽管具有长期回报的公共资本投资在持续经济发展过程中发挥着核心作用，却可能受到忽视。本研究以印度农村道路建设计划为背景，评估大规模公共基础设施项目对选举问责机制的作用。本文采用模糊断点回归设计，并使用新近数字化的2014年大选村级投票结果，研究结果提供了证据，表明主导该计划的政治联盟获得了选举支持。这种支持持续了两个选举周期，并对新建道路2公里范围内的村庄产生了显著的溢出效应。• 新道路改善了将村庄与更广泛经济联系起来的交通服务。• 村民以选票奖励主导道路扩建计划的政党。• 政治回报持续了两个选举周期。• 新建道路2公里范围内的村庄存在显著的溢出效应。
Abstract
The prevailing view in the economic literature is that voters are particularly myopic, encouraging governments to leverage short-term re-election strategies. Under such conditions, public capital investment with long-term rewards – despite its central role in the process of sustained economic development – may be neglected. In the context of India’s rural road construction programme, this study evaluates the role which large-scale public infrastructure initiatives have on the electoral accountability mechanism. Using a f u z z y regression discontinuity design with newly-digitised village-level voting outcomes from the 2014 general election, the results provide evidence of electoral support attributed to the political alliance which spearheaded the programme. This support is sustained over two electoral cycles, with significant spillover effects in villages within 2 km of a newly built road. • New roads result in better transport services linking villages to the wider economy. • Villagers reward the party which spearheaded the road expansion programme. • Political rewards are sustained over two election cycles. • There are significant spill-over effects in villages within 2 km of a newly build road.