中文摘要
犯罪水平是拉丁美洲长期存在的发展问题，也是美国日益关注的焦点。与此同时，公众对警察的信任度持续下降，关于公民是否愿意支持政府打击犯罪举措的疑问层出不穷。我们在五个拉丁美洲国家和美国开展了一项调查实验，以测度人们为减少犯罪而贡献的意愿。我们比较了针对凶杀、抢劫和盗窃的估计结果，发现犯罪越严重、犯罪降幅越大，人们的贡献意愿越高。此外，我们通过开展两项实验，考察了信息对贡献意愿的作用。我们记录到，低估和高估凶杀率的人群在减少犯罪的支付意愿上存在11个百分点的差距；但向受访者告知实际犯罪水平可以将这一差距完全消除。我们还表明，让受访者接触犯罪相关新闻会使其支付意愿提高5%。平均而言，我们的估计表明，家庭愿意每年为凶杀率降低20%贡献约152美元，这相当于拉丁美洲国家安全支出增加15%至65%（最高达GDP的0.5%）。• 我们在五个拉丁美洲国家和美国开展了一项调查实验，以测度人们为减少犯罪而贡献的意愿。• 我们比较了针对凶杀、抢劫和盗窃的估计结果，发现犯罪越严重、犯罪降幅越大，人们的贡献意愿越高。• 我们还考察了信息对贡献意愿的作用。• 让受访者接触犯罪相关新闻会提高其支付意愿，而向其告知实际犯罪水平则会消除低估与高估凶杀率者之间的差距。
Abstract
Crime levels are a perennial development problem in Latin America and a renewed concern in the United States. At the same time, trust in the police has been falling, and questions abound about citizens’ willingness to support government efforts to fight crime. We conduct a survey experiment to elicit willingness to contribute toward reducing crime across five Latin American countries and the United States. We compare homicide, robbery, and theft estimates and find a higher willingness to contribute to more severe crimes and for higher crime reductions. In addition, we examine the role of information on the willingness to contribute by conducting two experiments. While we document an 11 percent gap in willingness to pay for crime reduction between people who under and over-estimate the murder rate, we find that this gap can be wholly eliminated by informing respondents about the actual level of crime. We also show that exposing respondents to crime-related news increases their willingness to pay by 5 percent. On average, our estimates suggest that households are willing to contribute around $152 per year for a 20 percent reduction in homicide, representing an increase in security spending between 15 and 65 percent in Latin American countries (up to 0.5 percent of GDP). • We conduct a survey experiment to elicit willingness to contribute toward reducing crime across five Latin American countries and the United States. • We compare homicide, robbery, and theft estimates and find a higher willingness to contribute for more severe crimes and for higher crime reductions. • We also examine the role of information on the willingness to contribute. • Exposing respondents to crime-related news increases their WTP and informing them about the actual level of crime eliminates the gap between those who under- and over-estimate the murder rate.