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假释委员会如何应对重大的社会冲击?来自“9·11”恐怖袭击的证据

How do parole boards respond to large, societal shocks? Evidence from the 9/11 terrorist attacks
Journal of Public Economics · 2024 · Brendon McConnell、Kegon T. K. Tan、Mariyana Zapryanova

中文摘要

本文首次提供了“9·11”事件对美国刑事司法系统中穆斯林所获结果之影响的证据。我们聚焦佐治亚州黑人穆斯林男性的假释结果,发现“9·11”事件后其获准假释的可能性大幅下降,穆斯林服刑人员的刑期随后相对增加了23%。这些影响在“9·11”事件后的数年间持续存在,且对累犯风险较高的服刑人员影响更大。我们认为,这些效应反映了“9·11”事件后假释委员会成员的决策所导致的不当差异。

Abstract

We provide the first evidence of the impact of 9/11 on outcomes for Muslims in the US criminal justice system. We focus on parole outcomes of Black Muslim men in the state of Georgia, and find large post-9/11 declines in the likelihood of being granted parole and a subsequent 23% relative increase in prison time for Muslim inmates. These impacts persisted for several years after 9/11 and were larger for inmates with higher levels of recidivism risk. We argue that these effects reflect unwarranted disparities driven by the decision-making of parole board members post-9/11.
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