中文摘要
本文通过考察1937年《铁路退休法》来估计公共养老金如何影响退休时点。该法以一项在诸多方面与社会保障制度相当的全国性计划取代了铁路行业的私人养老金。分析的第一部分利用1910—1940年间关联匹配的十年一次人口普查记录，按年龄比较此前就职于铁路行业与其他养老金覆盖广泛行业的工人从1930年到1940年男性劳动力市场不参与状况的变化。更高的养老金待遇导致更早退休，这主要由65岁时退出劳动力市场所驱动。分析的第二部分还利用养老金待遇由平均工资的固定金额函数转变为累进函数这一变化，估计65—69岁男性不参与率相对于养老金待遇的弹性。0.55的核心估计值表明退休反应较大。将这些估计值应用于20世纪50年代社会保障制度的扩张表明，在这一时期，养老金待遇提高是已参保男性群体提前退休的关键驱动因素。
Abstract
This paper estimates how public pensions affect retirement timing by examining the Railroad Retirement Act of 1937, which replaced private railroad pensions with a national program comparable in many ways to Social Security. Leveraging linked decennial census records between 1910–1940, the first part of the analysis compares male labor force nonparticipation in 1940 relative to 1930, between workers previously in railroad versus other industries with broad pension coverage, and by age. Higher benefits led to earlier retirement, largely driven by exit at age 65. The second part of my analysis also exploits the switch from flat to progressive benefits in average wages to estimate the elasticity of nonparticipation with respect to benefits for men aged 65-69. My central estimate of 0.55 indicates a large retirement response. Application of these estimates to Social Security expansions in the 1950s suggests rising benefits was the key driver of earlier retirement among the already-insured male population during this era.