晚年死亡率与联邦禁酒令的废除

中文摘要

尽管近期人们对饮酒健康后果的认识发生了显著而剧烈的重新评估，但关于宫内酒精暴露对晚年死亡率等长期结果的影响，人们仍知之甚少。本文考察联邦禁酒令废除所导致的各州逐年酒精管制差异，如何影响20世纪30年代出生队列的死亡率。我们发现，在开放州（wet states）出生的个体，其晚年死亡率高于在禁酒州（dry states）出生的个体；对于受影响的出生队列，这相当于1990年至2004年间死亡率上升了3.3%。

Abstract

Despite a recent and dramatic re-evaluation of the health consequences of alcohol consumption, very little is known about the effects of in utero exposure to alcohol on long-run outcomes such as later-life mortality. Here, we investigate how state by year variation in alcohol control arising from the repeal of federal prohibition affects mortality for cohorts born in the 1930s. We find that individuals born in wet states experienced higher later-life mortality than individuals born in dry states, translating into a 3.3% increase in mortality rates between 1990 and 2004 for affected cohorts.