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移民接触与反移民情绪:委内瑞拉人口外流的案例

Migrant exposure and anti-migrant sentiment: The case of the Venezuelan exodus
Journal of Public Economics · 2024 · Jeremy Lebow、Jonathan Moreno-Medina、Salma Mousa、Horacio Coral

中文摘要

全球难民流动和反移民政治的加剧,使得理解移民流入何时以及如何转化为反移民情绪变得愈发迫切。我们研究了委内瑞拉人大规模外流至拉丁美洲各地的现象,与此同时,接收委内瑞拉人最多的国家出现了前所未有的移民情绪恶化。然而,我们没有发现证据表明,这种恶化发生在一国内部接收移民最多的地区。我们使用了多种移民情绪结果变量,包括调查测度和社交媒体帖子,考察了七个拉丁美洲国家多个地理层级的差异,并采用了工具变量策略。我们几乎没有发现效应会因劳动力市场竞争、公共品稀缺或犯罪相关的一系列特征而呈现异质性的证据。研究结果与「反移民情绪是一种国家层面的现象、且与当地同移民接触的经历相脱离」这一解释相一致。

Abstract

The global increase in refugee flows and anti-migrant politics has made it increasingly urgent to understand when and how migration translates into anti-migrant sentiment. We study the mass exodus of Venezuelans across Latin America, which coincided with an unprecedented worsening in migrant sentiment in the countries that received the most Venezuelans. However, we find no evidence that this decrease occurred in the regions within-country that received the most migrants. We do this using multiple migrant sentiment outcomes including survey measures and social media posts, multiple levels of geographic variation across seven Latin American countries, and an instrumental variable strategy. We find little evidence for heterogeneity along a range of characteristics related to labor market competition, public good scarcity, or crime. The results are consistent with anti-migrant sentiment being a national-level phenomenon, divorced from local experiences with migrants.
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